Commentary: Singapore economy set for V-shaped recovery this year but jobs market may take longer to rebound

SINGAPORE: After a double-digit slump of 13.4 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020 during the global lockdown period, the Singapore economy has begun to turn the corner. While GDP growth continued to shrink in the second half of 2020, nevertheless the pace of contraction has been moderating. Advance estimates of the fourth quarter 2020 saw a milder than expected 3.8 per cent year-on-year decline, and preliminary estimates for 2020 put the full-year contraction at 5.8 per cent year-on-year. The last time Singapore faced an economic crisis of this magnitude, during the 2008 to 2009 global financial crisis, it bounced back sharply by 14.5 per cent in 2010. READ: Commentary: Misinformation threatens Singapore's COVID-19 vaccination programme For 2021, we expect a bounce back of up to 4 per cent to 6 per cent year-on-year growth, aided by the very low base in 2020, before normalising back to trend growth around of 3 per cent in 2022. This seemingly V-shaped GDP growth recovery will be more broad-based, with the construction and services sectors likely to revert to positive on-year growth, but the jobs market may take longer to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels. FALL OUT FROM COVID-19 TO BE LONGER The… Read full this story

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